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3 septembre 2011 6 03 /09 /septembre /2011 22:20
Analyse de la chute de l'Empire par Philippe Dessertine et Justin Vaisse.
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Mon Blog(fermaton.over-blog.com),No-30, THÉORÈME SURVIVRE. - On ne peut pas mentir......!!

Voici le billet rédigé par l'agence de notation chinoise :

On August 2, 2011 (EST) the Congress of the United States of America (hereinafter referred to as the US) approved the bill on
raising the debt ceiling of the government. Though this decision enables the government to continue the practice of repaying its old debt through raising new debt, it has not changed the general
trend that the increase in national debt outpaces the increase in economy and revenue, making this incident a turning point for the US government’s solvency to decline even further. Hence, Dagong
decides to downgrade the local and foreign currency credit rating of the US put on the negative watch list on July 14 from A+ to A with a negative outlook. The key reasons for the downgrade are
as follows:

   1. The defects in the political
structure exposed in the bipartisan struggle indicate that the US government has difficulty in ultimately resolving the sovereign debt crisis; the interest and safety of the US creditors lack a
guarantee from the political and economic systems.  The difference in political views between the Democrats and Republicans has been acting as a curb on the decision-making efficiency of the
US government ever since the mid-election in the US. The decision on the debt limit concerns the sustainability of government financing, the safety of the US and world economy, as well as the
interest of the Treasury holders; at this crucial juncture, neither the Democratic Party nor Republican Party has shown any consideration for the general interest in order to argue for their own
partisan interest; they had a hard time making the correct choice in a timely manner leaving the world in terror, which highlights the negative role of the US political system on an economic
basis. This incident will definitely exert its continuous impact on investors’ confidence in US Treasury bonds, affecting the stability of the US debt income.

   2. By raising the debt limit the US
temporarily prevents the government from debt default, but it does not improve the national solvency; rather the heavier debt burden on the government will cause the US sovereign debt crisis to
further deepen. The fact that the US Congress approves the raising of the debt limit further indicates that the multiple factors affecting the national debt service capability will not change
positively in a considerable long term, and that no substantial change will occur to the severe imbalance between the real wealth creation capability and huge national consumption. As a result
the US solvency will continue a declining trend, and the accumulation of the contradiction between the lowering solvency and the rising debt add to the inevitability of triggering a sovereign
debt crisis.

   3. The pace of the US deficit cut is
far lower than that of new debt growth and the fiscal policy of revenues falling short of expenditures will surely keep pushing the US government debt to a higher level. The deficit cut objective
approved by the Congress matches the size of raised debt, yet there is an eight-year difference between the two objectives; besides, the deficit cut plan rests on a framework agreement only,
lacking credible and feasible policy support. Dagong estimates that in order to maintain the current debt size it is necessary for the US to cut its deficit by at least $4 trillion within the
next 5 years; obviously the deficit cut program approved by the Congress cannot meet the demand of debt deduction, in addition it reflects a declining willingness of and increasing difficulty for
the government in cutting the deficit, which will be unable to provide strong support to the current credit rating. Dagong predicts that the deficit level of the US government will remain
moderately high in the future and the size of federal debt will exceed the GDP by the end of 2012.

   4. The US Congress has not come up
with a positive resolution on how to address the problem of insufficient driving forces for national economic growth, which indicates that the US government cannot resolve the fundamental
influence of low economic growth, high deficit and increasingly higher debt to the debt service capability through increasing real wealth creation, with the declining national solvency
irreversible. It is natural that QE3 monetary policy will be enabled for the next step, which will throw the world economy into an overall crisis; the status of US dollar will be essentially
shaken in this process.

   The radical deterioration in the
state management capability, economic strength and fiscal strength that affect the government debt service capability and willingness revealed in the struggle over the debt ceiling determines the
outlook of the sovereign credit rating of the US as negative.

Source : http://www.dagongcredit.com/dagongweb/english/pr/show.php?id=108&table=web_e_zxzx



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